Is Windows Phone developer interest waning?

IDC believes developers are losing interest in Windows Phone. We try and find out if this is the case

Windows Phone is in a fragile state. One minute we hear what could be deemed as good news in the form of Nokia announcing four million Lumias have shipped. And then we saw a marketshare jump in July - the biggest yet, in fact.

But the world still isn't quite convinced, especially tech journalists and analysts who believe the platform hasn't got what it takes, and that Android and Apple have the market all sewn up.

And now IDC, who seems to have faith in the platform judging by past predictions, is a little weary of the Windows Marketplace and the level of developer support surrounding it.

A survey by IDC and Appcelerator found only six per cent of developers believe Windows Phone can win in the world of enterprise. This is compared with six per cent surveyed in Q3 of 2011.

Not a particularly big drop, but the gap between Windows Phone and its competitors remains significant. Developers favoured Apple with 53 per cent of votes. Second went to Android, with 37 per cent of votes.

It gets worse, according to the data. The number of developers 'very interested' in Windows Phone went from 37 per cent in Q1 of 2012, to 25 per cent in Q2 of 2012. Not a great result, then, but IDC did say this was expected, given the still secretive sales figures, the Windows Phone 8/7.8 update saga, and competitive challenges.


Windows 8 tablets fared better in the minds of developers. 33 per cent are 'very interested' in the platform, but devices needs to sell well for the positivity to be maintained.

So why is Windows Phone not getting as much love as it once was? One reason, as IDC mentioned earlier, is that no one really knows how well Nokia is doing.

Sure, one stat found market share had increased. Another showed Microsoft's mobile marketshare had stabilised, indicating things are picking up.

But without Nokia releasing any actual figures it's hard to know what's going on - and that doesn't exactly inspire confidence when you are contemplating spending your time and money on building an app or game.

This, of course, boils down to making money. When you can make a ton of money on iOS, is there any point in bringing it to Windows Phone, or even Android?

The jury is still out on that one. We've spoken with developers who have made money, and some mobile ad firms have mentioned ad-click rates above that of its rivals. But app and game review ratings are usually measured on the Marketplace, at peak, in the thousands - not the hundreds of thousands you see elsewhere.

Windows Phone users could be so casual or lazy that actually there have been massive sales results but nobody wants to review a game or even give it a star rating. Is that the case, though? Answering that would require an extensive survey or details from Microsoft, and we don't think Steve Ballmer would send those figures over if we asked nicely.

Maybe Windows Phone users aren't so concerned about apps? It sounds like a defensive statement when we know its Marketplace is relatively small compared with the App Store and Google Play, but we feel there's some truth to it.

When reviewing an Android phone, the first thing we do is spend hours faffing with third-party launchers to fine-tune our home screen.

On iOS, where iOS looks a little dated and too familiar, we hit the app store for all the games we can't get elsewhere because it gets pretty much everything.

But on Windows Phone we find ourselves getting a few of the essentials like Twitter/BirdSong/Twabbit, LinkedIn (the official app is marvelous) and some photo editing apps for good measure. Then we just use the phone as a phone and play the odd mobile game until we get home to an actual console.

Don't get us wrong, apps are fantastic creations but we don't get the same feeling that we need to go and download every app in existence like we do on Android. Perhaps this is because we've been starved of so many big-hitters after prolonged Windows Phone use?

Also bear in mind developers will be more tech savvy than consumers, and so the effect of current Windows Phones not getting the latest update (7.8 will be offered instead) should be greater. This makes some sense but developing apps for 7.8 and 8 shouldn't be that different unless you decide to make use of the latter's unique functionality like support for Havok's physics engine.

Developers seem to be relatively quiet in terms of whether money is made, and this could be the result of two scenarios.

One: sales are average so no one is nonplussed about telling the world. Two: sales are so good nobody wants to give the game away because if the 'secret' gets out, more developers will flood the market and make being seen a lot harder.

Whatever it is, the radio silence from developers and manufacturers is making it hard to gauge whether we'll be enjoying a three-horse race, or writing features on why Windows Phone went the same way of Windows Mobile.